To: citycouncil@westmelbourne.org,
Subject: Comments on the Traffic Analysis for Doherty Drive Extension – Nerdy Version
Date: Fri, May 31, 2019 3:30 pm
 

This study contains a lot of interesting and useful data
and reasoning, but the conclusions are seriouslyflawed. It bases its conclusions on a small data sample that is suspect because it is significantly out of line with previous
measurements; and it does not look far enough into the future to foresee the negative impactthat the growth of Minton traffic will have on all of this.

An important objective of this study was supposed to be
to determine the impact on Henry Avenue traffic. (Reference council discussions on 18 Dec 2018.) The TEDS conclusion
about Henry Avenue traffic relies on a mere 4 hours of traffic counting from a single day in February. This data appears to be an outlier, because it is out of line with previous measurements.

 

The following data, taken from the Space CoastTraffic
Management Organization (SCTPO) website, paints a much less rosy picture: 

11/3/2015: Level of Service = E, Volume/Max Allowable
Volume = 0.51

10/18/2016: Level of Service = E, Volume/Max Allowable
Volume = 0.48

10/11/2017: Level of Service = E, Volume/Max Allowable
Volume = 0.51

The data from the TEDS study is structured differently,
and is much more detailed, but it shows all HenryAvenue traffic at Level of Service = A, B, or C (as opposed to the data from SCTPO which was Level of Service = E in all cases).

The data from the TEDS study is also decidedly not
compatible with the traffic you can see in this brief video:
Henry Avenue Traffic.

On this basis alone, the conclusions of the TEDS study concerning Henry Avenue should be rejected, because the conclusions are based directly on the suspect measurement.

​

But there is a much more serious issue with the study in
that it does not project far enough into the future. Since the design and construction of the new road would each require about a year, the road will not beavailable until 2021 at the earliest; but the study only projects out to 2023. (You would never buy a car, or ahouse, much less a roadway that would only be useful for two years!) 

The timeframe is significant because of the expected
growth of traffic on Minton. It is an undeniable fact thattraffic on Minton road is already a serious problem. In the area of interest (Heritage Oaks to Henry), traffic was at Volume/Max Allowable Volume = 0.86 in the year 2017 (per data from SCTPO). Assuming that these levels increase by 2% per year (as assumed in the TEDS analysis and other traffic studies), that means that by 2026 (five years after new road opens), Minton traffic would be at Volume/Max Allowable Volume = 1.04; that is to say, a state of intolerable congestion.

 

Furthermore, the planned widening of Minton to six lanes will not have taken place. That means that Minton drivers will be desperate for shortcuts or alternate routes to get to their destinations. That means that the cut-through traffic will likely
be at extremely high levels. 

Minton is the kind of road, and this is the kind of situation, that was discussed in the Texas A&M report which I forwarded previously, which showed that local roads built next to high traffic arterials tend to invite very heavy cut-through traffic. Traffic on Minton will be like a liquid in a pipe under pressure that leaks out of any opening. The result will
be much more traffic pouring out onto Henry Avenue than what is projected inthe TEDS study.

The TEDS study ignores these realities and assumes
minimal cut-through, based on travel-time measurements made in a relatively benign traffic environment.

So in addition to the fact that TEDS study underestimates
the current Henry traffic, it seriously underestimates the future growth due to cut-through as a result of traffic growth on Minton.

Regardless of the outcomes of any specific measurements or
calculations, a factor that we need to keep in mind is that it is inherently unwise to try to solve a congestion issue on a major arterial by shuttling traffic off onto a local road. Doherty Drive Extension, as stated in the TEDS report, will relocate some traffic from Minton to Henry. But if a given number of vehicles are relocated from a 4-lane arterial to a 2-lane local road, the improvement on the arterial will be much
less than the deterioration on the local road. Again using  Volume/Max Allowable Volume as a measure of quality, if a relocation of vehicles causes a 5 percent improvement on Minton, it will cause a 13 percent worsening on Henry, due to
the differences in MaxAllowable Volume. Ask yourself: Is this progress?

Another shortcoming is that the Henry/Hollywood
intersection should have been analyzed. As discussed in the 18 Dec council meeting, this intersection can be a serious problem, especially for residents in the Canova Park/Clifton Edge/Timber Ridge, and Hollywood Estates areas. Blockage of side streets off ofHenry by traffic on Henry is of concern already and will be much worse with Doherty Drive
Extension.

We need to look to the future. If Doherty Drive Extension
is implemented, all of these issues will get worse and worse every year.

The real solution to traffic on Minton road is to expedite
the widening of Minton road. The city should whole-heartedly embrace this expansion, and not try to band-aid the problem by constructing a local road that will lead to nothing but local traffic jams, accidents, etc.

Allow me to finish (at long last!) with a humble metaphor: Solving Minton’s problem by siphoning traffic off through Doherty Drive Extension is like sending a toddler in to stop an all-out fistfight between a couple of big bruisers. He will have almost no effect on the fistfight, but he will be destroyed in the process. Over time,this road will have almost no impact on Minton traffic, but the impact on local streets and
neighborhoods could be quite ugly.

Thank you for your time.