Traffic Growth Factor

As they say, it is difficult to make accurate predictions, especially about the future. But planning requires that we try.

 

We would expect a traffic analysis for a road to project say, five or ten years beyond the construction completion date. However, the city analysis only projects out to 2023, which in all likelihood is the earliest construction completion date.  We need to project much further into the future. This is especially important because we can all see that developments are springing up all around us. Indeed, the realtor trying to sell the property at Minton/Heritage Oaks, advertises that there is: "Explosive residential growth in the immediate area."

 

A rule of thumb used by local planners is that traffic tends to increase by a bit over 2 percent per year. This rule is supported by data published by the Space Coast Transportation Planning Organization, which shows that over a four-year interval, traffic volumes increased by 9 percent in this region. See the first page of this document:

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It is also worth noting that the Melbourne-Palm Bay area is rated as the third area in the nation for growth, according to the latest Growth Survey by U-Haul. Traffic growth is not a thing of the past.

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The bottom line is that when we look at the city traffic study, we should bear in mind that traffic volumes will probably increase by more than a few percent per year, and this will have a cumulative effect.

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